2026 Projections

Through Week 7 · every team’s current roster, optimal lineup off Sleeper’s weekly player projections, 6,000-sim Monte Carlo of the rest of the season · updated Oct 30

Through Week 7: Nshull3 projects out front. The rest of you are somewhere between "in the hunt" and "already thinking about the draft."

#TeamPts/WkProj. RecordPlayoffsTitleLast
1NBy Hook or CookNshull3121.410.2–3.898%21%0.0%
2TNix Out For HarambeTyscans123.310.0–4.098%26%0.0%
3MMattWikeMattWike116.69.6–4.493%12%0.0%
4BLike A Good Nabersbradyschroeder7124.98.8–5.291%16%0.0%
5JShow me your TDsjchase77119.18.7–5.387%17%0.0%
6BThe A-Teambarmstrong248117.18.3–5.775%4.1%0.0%
7TNacua MatataTrevor115.87.4–6.648%3.4%0.0%
8TKibbles and Vickstrae071091112.05.9–8.19.3%0.6%0.4%
9DNo Punt IntendedDHensleyWC7L100.35.1–8.91.6%0.0%2.5%
10DWaddle Housedrewhenrikson103.23.8–10.20.2%0.0%12%
11NStrictly Businessnoahkhaja98.53.5–10.50.0%0.0%25%
12JWhat the Goffjwhitego4298.32.4–11.60.0%0.0%61%

The Tape

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1. Nshull3By Hook or Cook · proj 10.2 wins · 121.4 pts/wk · 21.1% title

The model loves you. Your trophy case does not.

QB Josh Allen 24.5RB James Cook III 16.1RB Quinshon Judkins 10.2WR Parker Washington 16.1WR Christian Watson 16.0TE Travis Kelce 11.4K Spencer Shrader 9.1DEF MIN DEF 6.4WR Germie Bernard 10.3
T
2. TyscansNix Out For Harambe · proj 10.0 wins · 123.3 pts/wk · 25.9% title

Quietly projects 2nd after finishing 10th. Nobody's talking about you, which is how you like it.

QB Caleb Williams 15.8RB Kenneth Walker III 20.7RB Aaron Jones Sr. 9.8WR Zay Flowers 18.5WR DeVonta Smith 12.0TE Tyler Warren 11.1K Will Reichard 9.3DEF LAR DEF 8.5TE Pat Freiermuth 9.4
M
3. MattWikeMattWike · proj 9.6 wins · 116.6 pts/wk · 11.7% title

Projected 3rd at 117 points a week. Solidly, forgettably fine.

QB Aaron Rodgers 16.1RB Derrick Henry 15.8RB Jaylen Warren 14.9WR Justin Jefferson 18.4WR Rashee Rice 12.6TE Mason Taylor 7.9K Jason Myers 8.6DEF DEN DEF 7.8WR KC Concepcion Jr. 10.2
B
4. bradyschroeder7Like A Good Nabers · proj 8.8 wins · 124.9 pts/wk · 15.9% title

28-19 for your career and this year won't move it much.

QB Trevor Lawrence 21.4RB Ashton Jeanty 16.6RB Bucky Irving 16.5WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 25.0WR Luther Burden III 12.3TE Trey McBride 19.3K Brandon Aubrey 10.0DEF PIT DEF 8.9RB Breece Hall 11.3
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5. jchase77Show me your TDs · proj 8.7 wins · 119.1 pts/wk · 17.3% title

23-24 for your career and this year won't move it much.

QB Dak Prescott 22.7RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.2RB D'Andre Swift 13.0WR Michael Wilson 15.8WR Emeka Egbuka 11.5TE Colston Loveland 9.9K Cam Little 9.3DEF CIN DEF 9.9RB Tony Pollard 12.1
B
6. barmstrong248The A-Team · proj 8.3 wins · 117.1 pts/wk · 4.1% title

Quietly projects 6th after finishing 12th. Nobody's talking about you, which is how you like it.

QB Joe Burrow 21.4RB Javonte Williams 18.9RB Jonathan Taylor 16.2WR Garrett Wilson 16.6WR Drake London 16.5TE Mark Andrews 9.0K Chase McLaughlin 8.7DEF KC DEF 8.0RB Ollie Gordon II 12.9
T
7. TrevorNacua Matata · proj 7.4 wins · 115.8 pts/wk · 3.4% title

7th and on the outside looking in. Bench some of that hope.

QB Jayden Daniels 18.1RB Kyren Williams 19.7RB Bhayshul Tuten 14.4WR Ja'Marr Chase 20.3WR Jalen Coker 16.0TE Brock Bowers 17.2K Tyler Loop 7.8DEF NE DEF 9.2WR DK Metcalf 11.5
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8. trae071091Kibbles and Vicks · proj 5.9 wins · 112.0 pts/wk · 0.6% title

8th and on the outside looking in. Bench some of that hope.

QB Lamar Jackson 20.4RB Bijan Robinson 21.0RB Chuba Hubbard 16.7WR DJ Moore 14.7WR George Pickens 14.6TE Dalton Kincaid 10.6K Chris Boswell 8.1DEF SEA DEF 7.3WR Stefon Diggs 11.9
D
9. DHensleyWC7LNo Punt Intended · proj 5.1 wins · 100.3 pts/wk · 0.0% title

Down from 5th to a projected 9th — the window didn't close, it got bricked over.

QB Patrick Mahomes 16.8RB Omarion Hampton 10.2RB RJ Harvey 8.3WR Amon-Ra St. Brown 17.3WR Tetairoa McMillan 14.8TE Tucker Kraft 10.9K Evan McPherson 9.2DEF CLE DEF 6.1WR Matthew Golden 13.7
D
10. drewhenriksonWaddle House · proj 3.8 wins · 103.2 pts/wk · 0.0% title

Projected 10th, outside the cut. The roster says spectator.

QB Jordan Love 17.1RB Josh Jacobs 16.0RB Rachaad White 10.8WR CeeDee Lamb 22.5WR Ryan Flournoy 8.6TE Sam LaPorta 11.1K Jake Bates 8.4DEF JAX DEF 9.0TE Brenton Strange 10.9
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11. noahkhajaStrictly Business · proj 3.5 wins · 98.5 pts/wk · 0.0% title

The roster projects for 99 a week. That's not a lineup, it's a cry for help.

QB Drake Maye 21.8RB Chase Brown 17.7RB Saquon Barkley 10.9WR Jaylen Waddle 11.3WR Ladd McConkey 11.0TE Dallas Goedert 10.2K Matt Gay 8.5DEF BAL DEF 4.3RB Rhamondre Stevenson 10.6
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12. jwhitego42What the Goff · proj 2.4 wins · 98.3 pts/wk · 0.0% title

61% to finish last. The other 39% is optimism.

QB Jared Goff 16.3RB Jeremiyah Love 9.5RB Dylan Sampson 6.5WR Puka Nacua 21.7WR Tee Higgins 16.3TE Harold Fannin Jr. 10.7K Trey Smack 8.7DEF WAS DEF 8.4WR Carnell Tate 13.7

Projected points come from Sleeper’s weekly player projections with the optimal lineup set each week (bench points don’t count). Roasts by the house AI off each team’s real numbers.